Al-Shabaab on the run, analysts say

Mahmoud Mohammed in Mogadishu contributed to this report

April 16, 2012

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The continued military pressure on al-Shabaab in central and southern Somalia has left al-Qaeda-allied militants scrambling for alternative hideouts, Somali analysts have told Sabahi.

  • Al-Shabaab recruits walk down a street in the Daynile district in greater Mogadishu in March. Militants have been fleeing north due to increasing military pressure. [Mohamed Abdiwahab/AFP]

    Al-Shabaab recruits walk down a street in the Daynile district in greater Mogadishu in March. Militants have been fleeing north due to increasing military pressure. [Mohamed Abdiwahab/AFP]

After successive losses -- most recently in Hudur, Mahas and El Bur – al-Shabaab fighters have retreated to rugged territories such as the Golis Mountains to re-group, they said.

"There is no doubt that al-Shabaab is on the run. It is getting weaker by the day as [its fighters] have found themselves surrounded [by security forces]," said Mohammed Hussein, a security analyst and retired colonel in the Somali army.

"Al-Shabaab lost control over most of its main strongholds in central and southern Somalia during the past couple of months; they are now trying to flee," he said. "They now have no other choice but to surrender or flee Somalia."

Fragmented leadership

"Elements of al-Shabaab and al-Qaeda have now been weakened and are in a pitiful state," Somali Prime Minister Abdiweli Mohamed Ali told reporters at a press conference on Wednesday (April 11th).

Ismail Abdullahi, political analyst at the Centre of Horn of African Studies in Mogadishu, said, "Al-Shabaab [fighters] are now surrounded from all sides and the noose is rapidly tightening."

Lack of trust within the leadership, the result of lingering disputes, have affected where fighters are choosing to retreat, Abdullahi told Sabahi. "Each leader in the group is now thinking about where to escape," he said.

Disputes within the group's leadership were highlighted when US-born jihadist Omar Hammami, also known as Abu Mansour al-Amriki, was reportedly killed on April 5th. Some high-ranking members of the group, who found out about the killing at a leadership meeting in Baraawe, left angered and retreated separately with their fighters, Gedo Online reported.

Abdullahi said that since al-Shabaab leaders failed to win the hearts and minds of Somali clans in the past, leaders cannot return to their hometowns and regroup with the support of their clans. "The only option they have is to escape to the rugged mountainous areas in the north-eastern part of the country," he said.

'Tora Bora' in Somalia

Analysts told Sabahi that al-Shabaab militants and other militant groups are drawn to the Golis Mountains due to their strategic location overlooking the Gulf of Aden and Bab al-Mandeb and the resemblance to Tora Bora in Afghanistan.

Political analyst Abdulqadir Osman, who monitors Islamist fundamentalist groups in Somalia, said militants have planned to create secrete bases and training camps and the Golis Mountain Range can provide fortified hideouts for terrorists. "They would be suitable for this purpose, as they provide a good environment to train jihadists," he said.

Osman said the Golis Mountain militia fighters, which formally pledged allegiance with al-Shabaab in February, have been operating from this area for the same reasons.

"They have taken advantage of the environment and the absence of a security presence, which is why al-Shabaab leaders think that this mountainous region provides a safe haven where they could hide for some time," he said.

The difficult terrain in the region is not conducive to conventional fighting and would make it hard for government soldiers to penetrate, analysts told Sabahi.

"It would be difficult for any army to easily reach it and fight those that are entrenched there, as it is a mountainous, rugged area that contains many caves and caverns that could function as secret locations for the extremists," said political analyst Dawood Mohammed, a university professor in Mogadishu.

Security forces prepare for influx of militants

Regional security forces have been preparing for a possible influx of al-Shabaab fighters travelling north as the group continues to experience increased pressure in its three-front battle with Somalia's Transitional Federal Government and its allies.

On Sunday, after a security committee meeting in Galkayo, Mudug Governor Mohamed Yusuf Jama said the southern regional border would be sealed off in a preventive move to keep al-Shabaab out.

President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed pledged the transitional government would support security operations in Puntland to prevent al-Shabaab from regrouping in remote areas of the semi-autonomous state.

On Tuesday, Puntland President Abdirahman Mohamed Faroole reiterated his administrations' commitment to root out al-Shabaab from its territory and prevent others to enter. "If we need military assistance, then we will request it, but I am confident that our military will suppress the insurgency," he said.

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Reader's Comments

  • otieno
    May 21, 2012 @ 11:01:13AM

    finish alshabaab once and for all!

  • arafat
    May 18, 2012 @ 02:34:35PM

    realy this is fighting between Muslims and christians, this war is not have an end time upto the sunset! here a questions if u r muslim or somalia 'real muslim', not the one who uses christians likes money:- 1: we are in fighting 26-28 years old, if these christian governments want to get somalia peacy, why they come us before now? 2. if you are a muslim, at what time chiristians and muslims are become brothers? so that in our Qur'an told us that chiristians are our anemy and they are also want to burn and destroy all the Holly Qur'an? plz look, what is goingon on this world if u have a good mind to think and u know abourt more your religion! Give me your answer thanks,

  • Bashar
    May 16, 2012 @ 07:16:59AM

    inshallah one day Somalia will be peaceful country

  • none
    May 13, 2012 @ 04:44:15AM

    very good

  • PATRICK KARANJA MAINA.
    May 10, 2012 @ 09:54:54AM

    Al-Shabaab militia should be worked on untill they surrender but be aware of their revenge.To my opinion i don't think that KENYAN FORCES will be in a position to WITHSTAND when they combine with AL-QAIDAA.

  • Telesphory Mwadime Kitimo
    May 10, 2012 @ 09:52:36AM

    Congratulations AMISOM and allies for good work done, I long to hear of schools and industry in Somalia.The development of the Somali will strengthen our East African Community and make everyone happier.

  • mohamed khalif
    May 9, 2012 @ 06:05:53AM

    inshallah somalia will be peace

  • EZEKIEL MABUKA NYANGOYA
    May 7, 2012 @ 04:17:34AM

    The al-shabaab militia should be dealt with mercilessly because the group is not only a threat to somalia but also it affects the economic status of the neighbouring countries in the region .Tourist activities are partially disrupted due to fear .I CONGRATULATE THE KENYAN GVN FOUR TAKING AFFIRMATIVE ACTION AGAINST THIS TERROR GROUP.BRAVO!

  • Harold Kinyanjui
    May 6, 2012 @ 08:25:02AM

    The Al-Shabaab has ruined the trust we had for the young men in Kenya for recruiting some of them into their retrogressive ideas, why would one kill innocent people to make a God knows what point?

  • Dickson Kenga
    May 6, 2012 @ 02:19:43AM

    Bravo the group should be done away with!!! Peace has to prevail for our brothers.

  • Borafya
    May 5, 2012 @ 10:44:45AM

    Hallo! Thou themselves that once bragged as heroes of AL Alandus are now faced with their most uncertain career of terror. Ha! Ha haaaa! Felow I once told them that KDF has no bussiness toying with their commitment. Too late too unfortunate, ASBB run for your dear lives.

  • mubaarik bashiir aw cumar
    April 26, 2012 @ 11:53:26AM

    Al-Shabaab members are in the pursuit of their selfish interest and they feel no mercy for both the people and the country. They are in fact a big threat to the peace and security of the horn of Africa.

  • Bwocha Nyagemi
    April 24, 2012 @ 04:35:27AM

    Good work. It's my prayer that the terrosists will be dealt a death blow so that the innocent somalis of good will can work together and build their country. The rest of the world is walking toward universal freedom while the thugs in Somalia are keen on imprisoning their people in perpetual poverty and powerlessness and despondence. It is such a hughe shame. Oyee to the Kenyan military and AMISOM in general.

  • Murathi Salesio
    April 23, 2012 @ 11:04:33AM

    There is nothing for free let the Al-Shabaab know that the information is positive prepare to die silently

  • thouffs
    April 23, 2012 @ 05:06:17AM

    this is the direction that is expected,am jus a little bit worried on the situation that will be faced if the al-shabaab fighters are to fight the guerrilla warfare in the golis mountains ,the casualties would surely surge.that said kudos to KDF ,government soldiers and allies in AMISOM.

  • Kabutiei David
    April 21, 2012 @ 11:39:22PM

    The information is positive and lets support the AMISOMs and the KDFs group in the mission of re-borning Somalia.I also urge Somalies to team up in building their country and shern away from unhealth conflicts like chritism, ethnic fights,Criminal activities coz killing or intending to kill ruins your personality and life at large.Kindly keep off from dirty groups like the Algaeda, the Alshabab coz they are in your land to use for their dirty and distructive activities and you will never improve the standard of living in the country coz all this is dostroyed by such groups.It is just by having good governance and uniting with other nations in building the economy of your country and you will have a better Somalia.

  • Evance
    April 18, 2012 @ 09:38:40AM

    Congratulations on giving us this information, but what raises fear and anxiety in me is that KDF soldiers are moving forward effectively and I am happy with their endurance, although Kenyans continue to suffer by getting grenades exploded in every corner of this country, people have lost their lives and those who remain are left to live between fear and hope.

  • Burhaan
    April 17, 2012 @ 07:28:16PM

    The arab spring is hitting radicals hard that is what i see. the radical agenda is using the undemocratic regimes in muslims countries as a recruting toll and as nations change and democratic process move forward extremes loosing momenton. the same with alshabab as the govenment of somalia more establish and move forward the extremists loose thier recruting toll. go foward my nation soon we will have a place among the modren countries and lets alshabab goes to hell.

  • P Githinji
    April 17, 2012 @ 04:38:25PM

    For sure, Al-shabaab is upto no profit, and their extinction is the only way out to enable Somalis know and taste the sweetness of peace after long time of anachy. We always pray to Allah to see you sail through all these rough water and set sails to calm water in the future but soonest.

  • skimman
    April 17, 2012 @ 12:00:08PM

    I like it too but if these somali leaders mean business, then let us see it not political utterances only.

  • Dennis Kiprono Kipkalis
    April 17, 2012 @ 11:54:09AM

    I am exhilerated by the efforts of the KDF soldiers fighting the terror group.soon their duties will bear fruit if the continue tirelessly.

  • joachim thuo ahmed
    April 17, 2012 @ 08:13:23AM

    this is totwl madness

  • ugaaso
    April 17, 2012 @ 06:39:55AM

    Why do people kill each other? Why are we wiping one another out of existence? Who is fuelling the civil war for his own interest? Tribalism is evil while Al-Shabaab is a chronic disease with no cure that is killing the people in mass. Why don’t you remind yourselves the teachings of the religion, resolve the conflict and help stop the bloodshed? This situation is unbearable and we should therefore unite and fight this monster; Al-Shabaab because they will not spare anyone.

  • ben kiprop
    April 17, 2012 @ 03:57:17AM

    This is a good information but for the al-shabaab let me tell u that somalia belongs to somaliies and they are the only ones to make it governable.Build your country and stop military activities coz they will not help you and the country at all.Outsiders will come in to somalia for economic gains and not help somalies hence its you somalies that will build your country and not anybody else. Say no to alqaeda, alshabbab activities and clanism if you want to develop. Somalia has lots of potential no need for criminal activities. If you pple love somalia, pse stop alshabaab, alqaeda and its activities and support the KDFs and the AMISOMs activities for a better somilia.

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